Managing Expectations - Oilers mid-season report

The 2011-12 Edmonton Oilers enter the all star break and, of course, there needs to be a mid-season progress report. It's like high school - you and your parents/teachers set goals at the beginning of the year and midway through the school year you reconvene to see if you're on track or if you have succumbed to the "extra curricular" pressures of an innocent adolescent.

The preseason expectation was for the young Oilers squad to make the playoffs as a low seed. They were 9-4-2 in their first 15 games and optimism was high in Oil Country. Then the losses started piling up, injuries started finding their way back into the Oilers locker room and the Oilers plummeted down the standings. The optimistic Oilers faithful quickly turned into pessimistic hockey critics. Typical.

Before Oil Country gets their panties into a complicated cub scouts knot, lets re-evaluate our expectations. Did you expect the Oilers to win the Stanley Cup? If you did, there are local institutions to help with your mental disorder.

Did you expect the Oilers to win their division? Unless the defending Western Conference champion Vancouver Canucks decided to forfeit the season to do community service after their fans destroyed their downtown last June, forget about it.

Did you expect the Oilers to make the playoffs? I'm sure you did because that was the expectation for the team. But was this expectation realistic?

Let's lay out the facts. The Oilers are the two-time defending champions of the Toilet Bowl after finishing last in the league for two seasons. That means they were 15th in the Western Conference. To make the playoffs, the Oilers would need to improve by seven spots in the standings from last season. That means seven teams, who are also trying to make the playoffs, need to have gotten worse from last season. Sounds simple, but very difficult to do in the post-lockout NHL. Can you honestly say there are seven teams in the west that have actually gotten worse? Or, can you honestly say the Oilers are better than seven other teams in the west?

Ryan Whitney is one of several Oilers
defencemen to suffer a significant injury
this season. 

The Oilers have been praised for their recent ability to collect cornerstone players. The offensive personnel has a bight future with the likes of Hall, Eberle and Nugent-Hopkins running the show for the next decade. The optimism surrounding these young, future all stars is warranted, but it does not warrant fans to start saving their money to purchase playoff tickets. The team has too many holes in their lineup, especially in their back-end, to contend for a playoff spot. Last year, the 8th seeded Chicago Blackhawks were icing a defensive corps consisting of all stars Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, and Brian Campbell. They managed to push the Canucks to a game 7. If we use that as the benchmark for playoff-calibre defence, would the Oilers pass?

My preseason expectation for the Oilers was a 10-12th place finish in the west and I believe that is still attainable. Why? Because I managed my expectations. I expect the Oilers to improve (since there is nowhere to go but up if you're last) but I also don't expect them to be better than seven other teams. Likewise, I don't expect our lineup to outperform seven other lineups. I expect the team to finish around 82 points which is a 20 point improvement from last season. This equates to 10 more wins which would give them, based on last season, a 35-35-12 record. That means they are average which is exactly what they are. They aren't a Stanley Cup contending team. They aren't a playoff team. They are an average team - with a bright future. Enjoy the peaks, be optimistic during the valleys, and support your Oilers.

PS: This will be the last entry for this blog. I've enjoyed sharing my KRAP with you and I hope you've enjoyed reading my KRAP. I've started a new blog that will still focus on sports with a social/digital media bend. Check out The Sport Social.