Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Managing Expectations - Oilers mid-season report


The 2011-12 Edmonton Oilers enter the all star break and, of course, there needs to be a mid-season progress report. It's like high school - you and your parents/teachers set goals at the beginning of the year and midway through the school year you reconvene to see if you're on track or if you have succumbed to the "extra curricular" pressures of an innocent adolescent.

The preseason expectation was for the young Oilers squad to make the playoffs as a low seed. They were 9-4-2 in their first 15 games and optimism was high in Oil Country. Then the losses started piling up, injuries started finding their way back into the Oilers locker room and the Oilers plummeted down the standings. The optimistic Oilers faithful quickly turned into pessimistic hockey critics. Typical.

Before Oil Country gets their panties into a complicated cub scouts knot, lets re-evaluate our expectations. Did you expect the Oilers to win the Stanley Cup? If you did, there are local institutions to help with your mental disorder.

Did you expect the Oilers to win their division? Unless the defending Western Conference champion Vancouver Canucks decided to forfeit the season to do community service after their fans destroyed their downtown last June, forget about it.

Did you expect the Oilers to make the playoffs? I'm sure you did because that was the expectation for the team. But was this expectation realistic?

Let's lay out the facts. The Oilers are the two-time defending champions of the Toilet Bowl after finishing last in the league for two seasons. That means they were 15th in the Western Conference. To make the playoffs, the Oilers would need to improve by seven spots in the standings from last season. That means seven teams, who are also trying to make the playoffs, need to have gotten worse from last season. Sounds simple, but very difficult to do in the post-lockout NHL. Can you honestly say there are seven teams in the west that have actually gotten worse? Or, can you honestly say the Oilers are better than seven other teams in the west?

Ryan Whitney is one of several Oilers
defencemen to suffer a significant injury
this season. 
The Oilers have been praised for their recent ability to collect cornerstone players. The offensive personnel has a bight future with the likes of Hall, Eberle and Nugent-Hopkins running the show for the next decade. The optimism surrounding these young, future all stars is warranted, but it does not warrant fans to start saving their money to purchase playoff tickets. The team has too many holes in their lineup, especially in their back-end, to contend for a playoff spot. Last year, the 8th seeded Chicago Blackhawks were icing a defensive corps consisting of all stars Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, and Brian Campbell. They managed to push the Canucks to a game 7. If we use that as the benchmark for playoff-calibre defence, would the Oilers pass?

My preseason expectation for the Oilers was a 10-12th place finish in the west and I believe that is still attainable. Why? Because I managed my expectations. I expect the Oilers to improve (since there is nowhere to go but up if you're last) but I also don't expect them to be better than seven other teams. Likewise, I don't expect our lineup to outperform seven other lineups. I expect the team to finish around 82 points which is a 20 point improvement from last season. This equates to 10 more wins which would give them, based on last season, a 35-35-12 record. That means they are average which is exactly what they are. They aren't a Stanley Cup contending team. They aren't a playoff team. They are an average team - with a bright future. Enjoy the peaks, be optimistic during the valleys, and support your Oilers.

PS: This will be the last entry for this blog. I've enjoyed sharing my KRAP with you and I hope you've enjoyed reading my KRAP. I've started a new blog that will still focus on sports with a social/digital media bend. Check out The Sport Social.

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Destiny Fulfilled - World Champion Dallas Mavericks


I remember back in 2006 NBA finals and watching the Dallas Mavericks crumble. Dwyane Wade was abusing Devin Harris with some major help from the refs. With the amount of times Wade was going to charity stripe, you would have thought the refs lost some bet to Wade. (Can we check to see if Tim Donaghy worked games 3-6?)

I also remember Wade surrounded by teammates whose championship windows were closing quickly. Alonzo Mourning. Gary Payton. Antoine Walker. Jason Williams. Shaquille O'Neal. Even though the Mavs had the series under control, I guess it was just destiny that the Miami Heat won that year. It was destiny that Gary Payton avoided being in the same category as John Stockton, Karl Malone, and Charles Barkley as great players with no rings. It was destiny that Shaq could prove he could win without Kobe. It was destiny that Dwyane Wade's "coming-out"party was on the biggest stage and ended with a finals MVP. For a lack of a better word, it was Miami's "destiny" to win in 2006.

Since that epic collapse, the Mavs have had an agonizing road back to the finals. Three first-round exits including the embarrassing 2007 loss to the 8th seeded Golden State Warriors. Fast forward to 2011. Another 50+ season for the Mavs for the 11th consecutive year. Dirk playing at his usual all star level. Jason Terry was one of the best 6th man in the NBA. It seemed like every was going down the same path. Entering the playoffs, the Mavs were once again being labelled as the one-and-dones. Teams viewed the Mavs as an easy first round opponent, even prompting some teams to confess their desire to face the Mavs. Caron Butler, the second leading scorer, was lost for the season in January and had a marginally slim chance of playing in the postseason. He was replaced by an aging, one-trick pony in Peja Stojakovic who was chasing his first championship.

On paper, it seemed less likely than in years past that the Mavs can make a long title run. But also in comparison to years past, this team was different. The core was made up to grizzly veterans in Dirk Nowitzki (32), Jason Kidd (38), Jason Terry (33), Shawn Marion (33), Peja Stojakovic (34), Brenden Haywood (31), and DeShawn Stevenson (30). Seasoned veterans who were all still chasing their first title and for some their first appearance in the finals.

First, it was Portland. Then the two-time defending champions LA Lakers. Then the young guns of OKC. Finally, Miami. The stage was set only this time, destiny was on Dallas' side.

A 38 year old Kidd not backing down
against Wade. 
No one would have thought a 38 year old Jason Kidd could keep up with the tandum of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, let alone LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. But whatever physical shortcomings he had, he more than made up with his mental toughness and 17 years of wisdom. He managed the game and distributed the ball masterfully, something that was visibly missing for the '06 Mavs team. His defensive presence was stellar against younger, faster and more athletic players. But more importantly, he validated that calculated gamble that Mark Cuban took in 2008. A trade that no longer has any doubt on who won the deal. Yes, Devin Harris became a one-time allstar but has not played in a playoff since leaving Dallas. Kidd has avoided that list of "Greats without a ring" and joined Gary Payton on the list titled "Champions." It took 17 years and 2 failed finals appearances. But it felt like destiny for Kidd to be on that list.


Marion was a main reason why LeBron
only scored 15 total fourth-quarter pts 
in the finals.
Remember when Shawn Marion was a top 3 pick in fantasy basketball? How could he not when he was pumping out stat lines like 21.8pts/11.8rebs/2stls/1.7 blks/1.2-3s/52.5FG%/80.9FT%. The "Matrix" was an allstar and a huge part of the mid 2000s Phoenix Suns Seven-Seconds-Or-Less(SSOL) offense. But Marion never felt like he got the credit he was entitled to. He wanted to be "The Man" which lead to him being shipped out of Phoenix in 2008. And since then, he bounced from Miami to Toronto and finally to Dallas. Gone are the Allstar Game votes, All-NBA team votes, amazing stats and 1st round picks in NBA fantasy drafts. Marion quickly realized that being "The Man" was not as glamorous as it appeared. He landed in Dallas in 2009 and was ready to take the backseat to Dirk, Terry and Kidd. He lost his starting job to Caron Butler. He was no longer the high-flyer. But Marion's impact on a championship team cannot be understated. He didn't need to score 20points and grab 10 rebounds and block 5 shots. He needed to guard Gerald Wallace, Lamar Odom, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant and LeBron James. He needed to focus on defence and pitch in offensively whenever needed. More importantly, he didn't need to be "The Man" to fulfill his destiny as a champion.

Jason Terry was under the microscope the minute he arrived in Dallas. He was the unknown replacement of Steve Nash, who went on to win two MVPs. He was the starting pointguard who averaged less than 4 assists in the '06 finals. He was the guy who talked big but never backed it up when it mattered most. But since '06, Terry's career has taken unexpected turns. The arrival of Kidd resulted in Terry losing his spot in the starting lineup. This demotion could have ended badly - Terry could have sulked, complained, and whined his way out of town. But he embraced the new challenge becoming one of the best 6th man in the league - eventually rewarded with the Sixth Man of the Year award in 2009. He became the Mavs' 4th quarter closer along with Dirk and they were the most clutch tandum this season. But the memories of '06 was always in the back of JET's mind. The crippling pain of '06 could have defined his career, but it didn't. He never wavered from his desire to be a champion. Terry never backed off the trashtalk in this series, not even with LeBron James shadowing him for the entire 6 games. He never questioned his ability to knock down big shots, proven with his 27 point performance in game 6. He never regretted tattooing the Larry O'Brien trophy onto his bicep, knowing that it would be validated one day. Terry has fulfilled his destiny with his clutchness, his mouth and a some ink.

Dirk reportedly never got one phone call from another team in trying to recruit him last summer. In the giant poker game last summer, Dirk played the hand he only know - staying in Dallas with a new 4-year $80million extention. What might be his last contract, Dirk wanted to finish what he started in Big D. He probably could've joined Derrick Rose in Chicago or his buddy Steve Nash in Phoenix. But he chose to stay in the city that adopted him 13 years ago when he was some unknown protege from Germany. Since the '06 collapse, Dirk has been the punching bag for the media. Dirk faced more criticism with every playoff failure - questions about his toughness, his clutchness, and ability to carry a franchise to a title. Questions about whether he could elevate his game to championship-level calibre. Yes, a player whose career playoff averages were over 25pts and 10rebs was being questioned about whether or not he could play big in the playoffs.

Dirk's 2011 playoff journey will go down in history as one of the greatest playoff performances of all time. You can look at some eye-popping stats. 27.7pts per game along with 8.8rebs. His shooting efficiency was legendary with a 48.6 FG%/46.0-3PT%/ and a record-breaking 94.1FT% (converting 175 of 186 FT attempts). But more importantly, Dirk has finally answered his critics about his clutchness. 33points in the clinching game against Portland, shooting 58% from the field in the 4-game sweep of the Lakers, averaging 32.2pts per game against the OKC Thunder including a shootout against Kevin Durant that saw Disco Dirk drop 48. The only small blemish may be game 6 against Miami in which Dirk went 1-12 in the first half. But he came through when it mattered most, going 8for15 in the second half including 10 fourth quarter points - which matches his 4th-quarter average for the entire playoffs. He rallied his team from a 15 point-fourth quarter deficit, twice. Not clutch? Please.

The man responsible for Dirk's 
unguardable fadeaway jumper, Holger
Geschwindner.
Dirk is not your typical franchise player. He doesn't demand the spotlight. He doesn't do countless endorsements. He doesn't have the most marketable personality. He doesn't waste his time on things that didn't help him reach his goal of being a champion. Instead, he spends every summer working with his long time coach from Germany, Holger Geschwindner. He spent countless hours perfecting his legendary one-legged, fadeaway jumper. He became the greatest 7'0'' shooter of all-time.

As the last seconds ticked down in game 6, Dirk couldn't hold back the emotions. That's what happens when you've been doubted for years. When you fail, when you should have succeeded. When you lose, when you should have won. But as Dirk rejoiced alone, there were no hardships to endure. He has silenced his critics. He has put an exclamation mark on his hall of fame career. He has cemented his legacy. He's an NBA champion.

"I can always look back to the 2010-11 season and say we're the world champs and no one can ever take that away from me."

Destiny fulfilled.

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Break Even Point - NHL Playoffs - Finals


Vancouver Canucks.

Are they Canada's team?

Boston Bruins.

Are they Canada's team?

Since 2004, four Canadian teams have made it to the Stanley Cup Finals (Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and now Vancouver). However, there was never a question as to which team Canadians cheered for during the finals for the Flames, Oilers, and Senators. So why is it not the same for the Canucks?

More importantly, can the Canucks finally bring the cup back to Canadian soil - with a team loaded with imported talent?

Let the team at the Break Even Point hammer out the 2011 NHL Finals. Check it out here.

Break Even Point - NBA Playoffs - Finals


One thing that everyone needs to know about Jason Terry is that he is very superstitious
  • He wears the opponents shorts to bed the night before every game
  • He wears kneee-high socks - in quantities of 5
  • He has to indulge in some poultry before tipoff.
For someone who is so superstitious, you would be surprised by his most recent tattoo. JET tattooed a Larry O'Brien Trophy to his right bicep. Most athletes refrain from touching or going anywhere near the championship trophy as it may "jinx" their chances of winning it. Is JET's latest artwork going to "jinx" his chances of beating the Miami Heat in this year's finals? Or did he get it tattooed simply to kiss it for good luck before eating his pre-game chicken fingers?

The team at the Break Even Point will break down the 2011 NBA Finals. Will ASam finally cave in and put personal grudges aside and pick the surging Mavericks? Listen here. As always, feel free to comment and share!

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Break Even Point - NHL Playoffs - Round 2

Can Ovie finally carry
the Caps to the Finals?
14 overtime games. 4 seven-game series. Numerous head-shots. And even a suspension.

That sums up the thrilling first round of the 2011 NHL playoffs. Each passing day in the first round was like grabbing a new handful of Bits&Bites snack mix - you just didn't know what you would get. The first round provided so much excitement and was truly a roller coaster ride from beginning to end. So the question is: can Round 2 live up to Round 1?

ASam and I have broken down the semi-finals matchups and let you know who will move on to the Conference Finals. Will Ovechkin and the Capitals finally make their first appearance in the Conference finals? Can Vancouver build on their momentum? How will Boston play against the team they gave up a 3-0 series lead to?

Check it out here! Break Even Point has all the answers!

Monday, May 2, 2011

Break Even Point - NBA Playoffs - Round 2

Who would have thought the 8th seeded Memphis Grizzlies would upset the 1st place San Antonio Spurs?

Or how about the enigmatic Atlanta Hawks taking care of business against the Orlando Magic? 

Many surprises and close games in the first round of the NBA playoffs which sets the stage for round 2 with some compelling match- ups. The cinderella team from Memphis will tackle the young, up-and-coming OKC Thunder. Can they pull off another upset with Zach Randolph leading the way? And what will happen in the first ever playoff encounter between Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki?

The team at the Break Even Point will give you everything you need to know about the Round 2. Check it out here! 

Monday, April 18, 2011

Break Even Point - NBA Playoffs - Round 1

The big question in this playoffs
is: Can the Lakers 3-peat?
"Where Amazing Happens." The slogan of the NBA for the last few seasons has become a somewhat sports-culture tagline. This past season we've seen the league go through several climatic events that have shaped this year's playoff scenario.

"Where Big-3s Happen" - with the formations of Big 3s in Miami and New York to go along with Boston, Los Angeles and San Antonio. "Where Last-Run-At-A-Title-Because-We're-Old Happens" - with the aging Spurs, Celtics and Mavs having a small window of opportunity to contend for a title because their go-to guys are nearing the end of their playing career. "Where Pending-Lockouts Happen" - with the expiration of the CBA and no resolution in sight. "Where Nothing Happens" - because of the lockout and the lost of the 2011-12 season and playoffs.

With the future of the NBA in limbo, more NBA fans are dedicating more time to watching this year's playoffs. With the pool of talent as good as its ever been, it's become very difficult to predict who will come out of the east and west.

The team at the Break Even Point will dissect each series and give our predictions on who will be contending for the Larry O'Brien trophy this spring.

Check it out here! As always, feel free to comment and share!